Just two months in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have piled up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – but currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
