A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
